Comments for The Mike Gasior Blog http://afs-seminars.com/blog Just another WordPress weblog Sat, 05 Sep 2009 16:41:12 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 Comment on The Next Bubble to Pop: China by Michael P. http://afs-seminars.com/blog/?p=396&cpage=1#comment-2302 Michael P. Sat, 05 Sep 2009 16:41:12 +0000 http://afs-seminars.com/blog/?p=396#comment-2302 Mike, A friend of mine has been talking about Japan and how their economic malaise could become a US reality back in early 2000 - he earned his nickname "Mr. Sunshine" and while I respected his opinions back then I always thought, "that can't happen here"...well it looks like I'm unfortunately going to be wrong... I also do not understand the basis for the mantra that financial experts are continuing where investors should get "back into the pool" and increase their mutual fund contributions in their retirement accounts as the market is selling at a discount!?! A discount based on what valuations? And if I had a nickel for every time a “talking head” on CNBC says, “there is going to be more upside as 90% of the cash remains on the sidelines”…this 90% figure hasn’t changed since March…bullocks. It appears to me that the stock markets have set themselves up for another implosion; I'm just not able to guess when the reality will set in as it always seems the climb higher takes much longer than the drop down. I believe you mentioned how the markets don't mirror the economy or reality for that matter - so when the market continues to rally on "better than expected - losses" in unemployment figures, etc... it leaves me mystified and with a big level of distrust in how the supposed "free markets" are actually working. You said it a while back in one of your blog postings that what if "Americans" change their spending ways and start saving more...well back in that posting, I didn't think it was possible... Today, I see the spending decrease happening on a daily basis, not only in my own purchase choices (do I "really" need it or have to have it) as well as friends who used to think nothing of going to the coffee shop 3 times a day to pick up an overpriced beverage, they have started brewing their own coffee and counting the savings. These changes are not short term in my opinion as I believe the consumer psyche has changed over the past 2 years and I know that I will not forget these tougher economic times anytime soon. Additionally, another rarely mentioned reality in the media is that those of us who are lucky enough to be employed have seen shrinking and/or frozen wages plus increased unpaid furlough days leaving us with less cash to spend, meanwhile the government props up the economy, growing the national debt, which leads to higher taxes and fees on all levels for the consumer (short term and longer term) so is there really any wonder why the latest "consumer confidence" readings are so low? All the best, MP-40 Mike,

A friend of mine has been talking about Japan and how their economic malaise could become a US reality back in early 2000 – he earned his nickname “Mr. Sunshine” and while I respected his opinions back then I always thought, “that can’t happen here”…well it looks like I’m unfortunately going to be wrong…

I also do not understand the basis for the mantra that financial experts are continuing where investors should get “back into the pool” and increase their mutual fund contributions in their retirement accounts as the market is selling at a discount!?! A discount based on what valuations? And if I had a nickel for every time a “talking head” on CNBC says, “there is going to be more upside as 90% of the cash remains on the sidelines”…this 90% figure hasn’t changed since March…bullocks.

It appears to me that the stock markets have set themselves up for another implosion; I’m just not able to guess when the reality will set in as it always seems the climb higher takes much longer than the drop down. I believe you mentioned how the markets don’t mirror the economy or reality for that matter – so when the market continues to rally on “better than expected – losses” in unemployment figures, etc… it leaves me mystified and with a big level of distrust in how the supposed “free markets” are actually working.

You said it a while back in one of your blog postings that what if “Americans” change their spending ways and start saving more…well back in that posting, I didn’t think it was possible… Today, I see the spending decrease happening on a daily basis, not only in my own purchase choices (do I “really” need it or have to have it) as well as friends who used to think nothing of going to the coffee shop 3 times a day to pick up an overpriced beverage, they have started brewing their own coffee and counting the savings. These changes are not short term in my opinion as I believe the consumer psyche has changed over the past 2 years and I know that I will not forget these tougher economic times anytime soon.

Additionally, another rarely mentioned reality in the media is that those of us who are lucky enough to be employed have seen shrinking and/or frozen wages plus increased unpaid furlough days leaving us with less cash to spend, meanwhile the government props up the economy, growing the national debt, which leads to higher taxes and fees on all levels for the consumer (short term and longer term) so is there really any wonder why the latest “consumer confidence” readings are so low?

All the best,
MP-40

]]> Comment on “Cash for Clunkers” is a Huge Success by McMead http://afs-seminars.com/blog/?p=386&cpage=1#comment-1555 McMead Wed, 19 Aug 2009 19:01:11 +0000 http://afs-seminars.com/blog/?p=386#comment-1555 Hi Mike, It's plain to see that the people running our country are fiscally irresponsible. Individuals who have always done the right thing by paying their bills, saving, investing, etc. are being punished with additional taxes and fees. My question is, what can the good people of this country do to protect what assets they have worked so hard to earn? Frankly, I’m tired of paying for everyone else’s mistakes and receiving no benefit for doing so! Hi Mike,

It’s plain to see that the people running our country are fiscally irresponsible. Individuals who have always done the right thing by paying their bills, saving, investing, etc. are being punished with additional taxes and fees. My question is, what can the good people of this country do to protect what assets they have worked so hard to earn? Frankly, I’m tired of paying for everyone else’s mistakes and receiving no benefit for doing so!

]]> Comment on “Cash for Clunkers” is a Huge Success by Bob Bollow http://afs-seminars.com/blog/?p=386&cpage=1#comment-1506 Bob Bollow Sat, 15 Aug 2009 10:28:36 +0000 http://afs-seminars.com/blog/?p=386#comment-1506 Yes. Insanity. And cash for clunkers damages the poor. My friend who lives outside of Bloomington IL: told me this past week that the front page story in the local paper concerned a charity. This charity estimates they have lost 75K of revenue from people not donating cars to them as a result of this Government program. Government is fine with this I would imagine because they are competing with private "charity" for money, wishing to be the only "charity" left standing. They fail to see their charitable programs e.g.; Medicare were only remotely feasible (and this for a time) when they can dictate rates to Doctors and hospitals, which subsidize these rates through private insurers who pay full price on other patients. So even "Successful" Gov. charity must be subsidized privately. I believe the Obama administration adversely changed the tax rate for charitable contributions as well. The Clunkers program rewards failure, and is it not a basic rule of Economics that whatever you pay more for you will get more of, (in this case failure) if I began to offer $2 for empty soda cans (just drop them off at my house) I would soon have a mountain of them in my yard. And as I believe Mike pointed out it destroys wealth as these cars have to be junked, though they might otherwise have been useful for sometime. These are the very cars low income people need to begin to get a job of the public transportation grid or maintain transportation to an existing job when their present vehicle breaks down. It rewards failed "thinking" from their own perspective as well since those who did not have the divine foresight to buy a fuel efficient car are now subsidized, but if your fuel efficient car is old, no subsidy for you. Many, according to the Chicago Tribune are buying cars which still get under 20 mpg. as well so not net gain in emissions either. Yes. Insanity. And cash for clunkers damages the poor. My friend who lives outside of Bloomington IL: told me this past week that the front page story in the local paper concerned a charity. This charity estimates they have lost 75K of revenue from people not donating cars to them as a result of this Government program. Government is fine with this I would imagine because they are competing with private “charity” for money, wishing to be the only “charity” left standing. They fail to see their charitable programs e.g.; Medicare were only remotely feasible (and this for a time) when they can dictate rates to Doctors and hospitals, which subsidize these rates through private insurers who pay full price on other patients. So even “Successful” Gov. charity must be subsidized privately. I believe the Obama administration adversely changed the tax rate for charitable contributions as well.
The Clunkers program rewards failure, and is it not a basic rule of Economics that whatever you pay more for you will get more of, (in this case failure) if I began to offer $2 for empty soda cans (just drop them off at my house) I would soon have a mountain of them in my yard. And as I believe Mike pointed out it destroys wealth as these cars have to be junked, though they might otherwise have been useful for sometime. These are the very cars low income people need to begin to get a job of the public transportation grid or maintain transportation to an existing job when their present vehicle breaks down. It rewards failed “thinking” from their own perspective as well since those who did not have the divine foresight to buy a fuel efficient car are now subsidized, but if your fuel efficient car is old, no subsidy for you. Many, according to the Chicago Tribune are buying cars which still get under 20 mpg. as well so not net gain in emissions either.

]]> Comment on “Cash for Clunkers” is a Huge Success by Mike http://afs-seminars.com/blog/?p=386&cpage=1#comment-1422 Mike Fri, 07 Aug 2009 00:33:58 +0000 http://afs-seminars.com/blog/?p=386#comment-1422 It's true....I did indeed leave off a few zeros. $3,000,000,000 is the amount of new debt. And one would suspect that the cooresponding increase in consumer debt is likely $6,000,000,000 for the loans that were taken out for these cars. It's troubling that much of that money already resides in Japan, Korea, Germany and elsewhere. I once again ask what economy U.S. taxpayers are stimulating. It’s true….I did indeed leave off a few zeros.

$3,000,000,000 is the amount of new debt.

And one would suspect that the cooresponding increase in consumer debt is likely $6,000,000,000 for the loans that were taken out for these cars.

It’s troubling that much of that money already resides in Japan, Korea, Germany and elsewhere.

I once again ask what economy U.S. taxpayers are stimulating.

]]> Comment on “Cash for Clunkers” is a Huge Success by delow24 http://afs-seminars.com/blog/?p=386&cpage=1#comment-1416 delow24 Thu, 06 Aug 2009 18:07:32 +0000 http://afs-seminars.com/blog/?p=386#comment-1416 And we are supposed to let these people run health care? Is there any doubt how that is going to turn out? And we are supposed to let these people run health care? Is there any doubt how that is going to turn out?

]]> Comment on “Cash for Clunkers” is a Huge Success by R Nelson http://afs-seminars.com/blog/?p=386&cpage=1#comment-1415 R Nelson Thu, 06 Aug 2009 18:02:46 +0000 http://afs-seminars.com/blog/?p=386#comment-1415 Mike- Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I think you left off a few 0's. If I understand it right the new debt would be $3,000,000,000.00. Oh well, what's a few more 0's to this congress. (If they issue the debt at 3% its only $90,000,000.00 per year in interest:-) Mike-

Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I think you left off a few 0’s. If I understand it right the new debt would be $3,000,000,000.00. Oh well, what’s a few more 0’s to this congress. (If they issue the debt at 3% its only $90,000,000.00 per year in interest:-)

]]> Comment on “Cash for Clunkers” is a Huge Success by Jeff L http://afs-seminars.com/blog/?p=386&cpage=1#comment-1414 Jeff L Thu, 06 Aug 2009 16:47:50 +0000 http://afs-seminars.com/blog/?p=386#comment-1414 Mike - I really enjoy reading your newsletters and blog. To me it's obvious that no one in Washington cares. They are spending money like drunken sailors. But hey, what's another $3,000,000,000 when the national debt is now $11,600,000,000,000 (I think seeing all the zeroes shows the magnitude of these numbers than saying billion or trillion). Based on an estimated population of 304,000,000 this equates to $38,157 per person. This is insane. This latest government program reminds me of a consumer who has a $10,000 balance on a credit card and then goes out and charges another $25 on it. Hey - it's only $25. Meanwhile, he is only paying the minimum payment, so the interest just keeps racking up. The interest on our national debt for FY 2008 was $412,000,000,000. This is mind boggling. I'm no financial genius, but you cannot borrow your way out of debt. If this out of control spending continues, the US government will go bankrupt and the dollar will collapse. This should be of big concern to everyone since we are paid in dollars, our retirement accounts are in dollars, etc. Mike – I really enjoy reading your newsletters and blog. To me it’s obvious that no one in Washington cares. They are spending money like drunken sailors. But hey, what’s another $3,000,000,000 when the national debt is now $11,600,000,000,000 (I think seeing all the zeroes shows the magnitude of these numbers than saying billion or trillion). Based on an estimated population of 304,000,000 this equates to $38,157 per person. This is insane. This latest government program reminds me of a consumer who has a $10,000 balance on a credit card and then goes out and charges another $25 on it. Hey – it’s only $25. Meanwhile, he is only paying the minimum payment, so the interest just keeps racking up. The interest on our national debt for FY 2008 was $412,000,000,000. This is mind boggling. I’m no financial genius, but you cannot borrow your way out of debt. If this out of control spending continues, the US government will go bankrupt and the dollar will collapse. This should be of big concern to everyone since we are paid in dollars, our retirement accounts are in dollars, etc.

]]> Comment on “Cash for Clunkers” is a Huge Success by Mike http://afs-seminars.com/blog/?p=386&cpage=1#comment-1392 Mike Wed, 05 Aug 2009 12:36:57 +0000 http://afs-seminars.com/blog/?p=386#comment-1392 It also occured to me that the government is incurring another $3,000,000 of national debt to fund this program. And they are encouraging people to trade in cars that are paid for only to take out car loans to increase consumer debt levels. Does any of this seem familiar to anyone? What happens when all this debt hits the fan? Does anyone care? It also occured to me that the government is incurring another $3,000,000 of national debt to fund this program. And they are encouraging people to trade in cars that are paid for only to take out car loans to increase consumer debt levels.

Does any of this seem familiar to anyone? What happens when all this debt hits the fan? Does anyone care?

]]> Comment on “Cash for Clunkers” is a Huge Success by Michael P. http://afs-seminars.com/blog/?p=386&cpage=1#comment-1382 Michael P. Tue, 04 Aug 2009 01:40:18 +0000 http://afs-seminars.com/blog/?p=386#comment-1382 Not unlike Anne, I don't see the point of taking personal responsibility for my fiscal actions anymore...might as well raid the pantry, as at this rate the US is going to end up insolvent... Sigh..... Not unlike Anne, I don’t see the point of taking personal responsibility for my fiscal actions anymore…might as well raid the pantry, as at this rate the US is going to end up insolvent…

Sigh…..

]]> Comment on “Cash for Clunkers” is a Huge Success by Michael P. http://afs-seminars.com/blog/?p=386&cpage=1#comment-1377 Michael P. Mon, 03 Aug 2009 22:24:55 +0000 http://afs-seminars.com/blog/?p=386#comment-1377 Mike, I read a blurb on the net today regarding the FACT that Federal tax revenue collection is down somewhere in the neighborhood of 19%...hmmm...guess we'll just continue to borrow from our communist neighbors China, et al. Spending is up, revenue is down and the recession is over??? The markets are celebrating, please let me know what great news is driving up the markets today? I feel like I'm in "Wonderland" and nothing is as it seems... What is a logical, rational, fundemental investor to do?!? Mike,

I read a blurb on the net today regarding the FACT that Federal tax revenue collection is down somewhere in the neighborhood of 19%…hmmm…guess we’ll just continue to borrow from our communist neighbors China, et al. Spending is up, revenue is down and the recession is over??? The markets are celebrating, please let me know what great news is driving up the markets today?

I feel like I’m in “Wonderland” and nothing is as it seems…

What is a logical, rational, fundemental investor to do?!?

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